This is just a short post, full analysis will come later.
Both Ukrainians and Russians seem hell bent on getting their own way, as a result they are bringing the probability of war closer on a daily basis. One thing that can be guaranteed is that ordinary people will be made to suffer as a result of stubbornness and pride shown by both sides.
Do not assume that Russia would easily win a war with Ukraine. Russia withdrew from its war with the Taliban in Afghanistan after realizing that it couldn’t defeat them. The Taliban were very basically armed compared to the then Soviet forces. Against Ukraine is a different situation, yes their military is smaller but Ukraine is a major arms supplier and those who will fight will go to the bitter end, extracting a very high price from Russia.
We live in a crazy world where the desire for power and demonstrating ego controls the actions of people who have undeserved power. They blindly lead their countries into the abyss. Watch this space. You can read Part 2 and Part 3 by clicking on the links.