Abdul Kader Salih the major leader of moderate rebel forces in Aleppo was injured and as a result died. When I was in Aleppo I spent a couple of days with the Al Tawheed brigade of which he was commander. He was very much the driving force and big ideas man who everybody looked to and united under. Because of his death it is going to be much easier for Al Qaeda forces in their objective of taking control of the entire city and surrounding areas. Jabhat al Nusra doesn’t exist anymore in its original form. The Islamist but non extremist element of them is now badly splintered, the rest of them have been absorbed by Al Qaeda.
It is a fact that Qaeda are bringing heavy weapons from such countries as Libya through Turkey. It isn’t the sort of thing that can easily be smuggled through international ports so Turkey must be turning a blind eye. The USA and Turkey are on good terms so it must be happening with tacit US approval. Why is this being allowed to happen?
The implication of this is that the moderate rebels are being deliberately sidelined with the objective of making this a religious war, which is what it has now become. Sunni vs Shia, and Iran will throw everything it has into maintaining Assad in power as their puppet. The aim of the USA is to allow Qaeda to grow in strength because it will force Iran, which is backing Assad to the hilt, to commit huge resources. The objective of the US is to make this war continue for as long as possible with the hope that Qaeda and Iran will exhaust themselves, with the result being that Iran’s sphere of influence and regional ambitions will be stymied and the majority of Qaeda’s resources will be concentrated in one area. It is a sort of evil genius that creates a strategy to make 2 of your biggest enemies fight each other to the finish.
Turkey is also storing up trouble for itself. In Turkey there are about 2 million Alawites, natural supporters of Assad who are becoming ever more unhappy at the actions of the Turkish government and their allowance of weapons to be moved to Qaeda in Syria. There is a real possibility of this becoming a regional war if the Turkish Alawites decide to take action. All my instincts are telling me that what is happening in Syria is going to spill over into other countries. There was the bomb attack at the Iranian embassy in a Hezzbollah controlled district of Beirut, this was carried out by those who want Iranian backed Hezzbollah to leave Syria. Events such as this will become more common. I can see how both Turkey and Lebanon can be drawn into the conflict.
It is a indictment of how rotten global politics is when Geo-political strategy is given priority but not a single thought is ever given to the ordinary people who suffer the consequences.