To be honest, it has been a hard year. My mother was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer at the end of last year, so this year was busy with family, giving mum a good time, family holidays together for her, going back to all the places where she had good memories. Finally she passed on August 24th, the end came very quickly, she had less than a day in hospital. Now I’m starting to get back into the swing of things. A part of that was being invited to write for a business/life coaching magazine. You can see the article here: http://bcoaching.online/blog/2018/10/09/coaching-in-a-different-culture/
Syria is almost entirely back under government control, what does that mean? Whilst Russia has been the main player in supporting Assad from the air, without Iran there would be no Assad. Iran is the real political power in Syria
What could this lead to? Iran’s intention is to destabilize the arab world as much as possible and put pressure on Israel. Now, with its access to the border with Jordan, there is a real possibility it will begin work to create chaos in Jordan. There are two objectives, if Jordan can be destabilized enough, it will raise alarm in Israel for the security of its border. In Syria, Israel has the buffer zone of the Golan Heights in Syria to keep Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah at arms length. If Jordan were to become unstable, there would be no buffer zone.
Secondly, if Iran through Syria can unbalance Jordan, then it would also have access to the border with Saudi Arabia, and this I think would be the main objective. Ultimately Iran wants to see the collapse of Saudi Arabia ,its nemesis . Slowly but surely Iran is surrounding the country. It has strong influence in Iraq so therefore has access to the eastern border, Yemen on the southern border is a war zone and Iran supports the Houthi rebels there. The next logical step is to create chaos in Jordan and give Iran access to the northern border of Saudi Arabia.
Russia isn’t strong enough to control Iranian influence in Syria and I’m not sure it would be unhappy if Iran were able to destabilize Jordan an American ally. Jordan in many ways is a fragile country. It is small and poor with hotbeds of potential unrest waiting to explode given the opportunity. The cities of Zarqa in the north and Ma’an in the south are pretty much no go areas, the army and police have to stay out of those cities and manage them by controlling the roads in and out. Given the opportunity, they would rise up now if they could. If Iran, now with its access to the Jordanian border can create enough chaos, it is certain fighting would start in Jordan. This is a huge security concern for both Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The point is this, the war in Syria stopped being about revolution a long time ago. Today it is about increasing power in the region, having geography and the strategic upper hand on your side. Iran is playing a long game here. Winning Syria is just one step further towards its goal of being the dominant power in the middle east.
Why BitCoin will not succeed in the long term. There are several different reasons.
One of the first is the cost of producing BitCoin. So far about 11 million ‘coins’ have to be mined using computers to ‘hash’ algorithms, out of a total of 21 million coins. To date the cost of electricity to produce a single BitCoin averages $6500. This time next year, because the complexity of computer calculations increases with each BitCoin mined, the average electricity cost will be approx $14000. The final cost of electricity to produce all 21 million coins will be far higher than that.
Second point. Transaction costs with BitCoin are increasing rapidly. The average fee now is $20 for any transaction and increasing all the time. That kills BitCoin as a currency, you will never be able to use it for grocery shopping. It is the way the blockchain technology underlying the system works. The faster you want to process a BitCoin payment, the more you have to pay, and that can be far higher than $20.
Third point. Governments will not allow a popular asset to be traded without being able to collect tax on it. They will start restricting the BitCoin exchanges. European governments on Friday 15/12/17 began doing this.
Final point. BitCoin has no fundamental value, it is just a digital ‘thing’, with nothing to support its value in the real world.
It is just a thing for speculation and ‘get rich quick’, For many investors, when the time comes, will be a way to lose money quickly. Particularly as the BitCoin system can’t handle large numbers of buy and sell orders for immediate processing. Your sell order could well take several days to process. That is simply how the BitCoin system works.
The next war could well be in Lebanon. If it happens and it looks likely, it will not be a local war but a proxy war fought by Saudia Arabia (KSA) and Iran. KSA is spending billions of dollars on weapons from the USA and UK and not only for it’s on going war in Yemen. Israel will also support KSA in a proxy war against Hezbollah in Lebanon because of Hezbollah’s deep ties with Iran. Iran on the other hand has been buying weapon systems from Russia. Russia supports Bashar al Assad of Syria, who is very close to Iran.
Can you see where I’m going here? A potential proxy war inside a proxy war. KSA vs Iran, the Sunni, Shia divide, Israel happy to see Iran caught up in a long drawn out war, expending resources, its enemies being weakened and unable to support the Palestinian territories in Israel, so it can continue to take over their land. USA supporting KSA and Russia supporting Iran, as both fight for influence in the Middle East. And people wonder why the global political system is so broken. It is run on a thirst for power and influence.
Ladies and Gentlemen, here it is, the launch of my new executive and personal life-coaching website. Please take the time to have a look at it and share it with those around you. If you are interested in my services, then please get in touch for your first free half hour consultation. Besides a wealth of life and business experience, being naturally empathetic and strategically minded, I studied hard to pass an exam in Life Coaching from an accredited UK college, Oxford Learning College. I want to help you be a better version of yourself, in both your personal and professional life.
One of the reasons I decided to start coaching is so I can have more free time to concentrate on photography and writing, so much happening in the world today and so much to write about. As time goes by, I will be adding more and more to this blog.
Work continues in preparation for the launch of my Executive/Life Coaching website. I’m very much looking forward to using my life and work experience as well as training as a certified coach to help clients become better versions of themselves, reaching greater potential. In the meantime I have produced a video for the website, which you can now watch.
Yes, I have been quiet here but that doesn’t mean I haven’t been busy. I have completed my life coaching course. Now I’m in the process of building the website, lots happening there. I’m looking forward to using my life experience, personal and professional in helping people be a better version of themselves.
As I develop my coaching business I will also have more time for photography and writing as well as other activities. I’m still watching the world very closely, just because I haven’t said much recently about the world situation, does not mean I don’t have many thoughts. We are living in a time when history will be made, for good or for bad.
So watch this space, yes I may be quiet at the moment, but when the time comes there will be very many things to talk about
I have decided to become a Life Coach and am now on a year long course to qualification. What led me to this decision and why? Read on to find out.
What triggered my thought process to decide on becoming a Life Coach was this winter. I am not designed to live in the cold. I never liked the cold but this winter was the hardest winter I have ever experienced. I wanted to hibernate. I need heat and sun, it gives me energy. So there I was one cold, dark, snowy day last December, reading some news sites and there was an article about Life Coaching, as I was reading, I realised that I have been informally helping and coaching others for years. It made me start thinking, could I do this as a job? I want to live in a warmer climate, somewhere in southern Europe, I want to work about 15 hours a week so I can have more time for personal things, such as writing and photography. So after doing more research into coaching I decided to go for it and begin studying for a diploma. I enjoy helping people, I have a lot of life experience, I’ve seen the best and worst of life, I’m naturally empathetic and a very good listener, I know human nature, I can also read people very well, it is easy for me to find out what makes a person tick.
Life Coaching has so many different aspects that are useful in both personal and professional life. One thing it isn’t about is being somebody’s psychologist, although elements of psychology are used. Coaching is about helping a person to be a better version of themself. It is about helping a person define what they want in life, what is achievable and realistic and then creating the steps that lead to making it happen. In fact, I hadn’t realised it at the time but it was using coaching techniques on myself that lead to me studying to become a Coach. My desire to live in a warmer climate, to reduce the amount of time I spend working so I can have time for other activities. Researching the best way to make this happen, confirming the goal is realistic and then taking action to make it happen.
A fascinating part of my course study is Neuro Linguistic Programing or NLP. How we speak and think has a huge impact on how we act. How we speak and act affects those around us. Learning how to program our thought and speech patterns has an effect not only on ourselves but also on those around us. Use of NLP in Coaching is about training a person to take more control of their thoughts and using those thoughts to create words and actions to have a positive result. We all want to make positive changes in our lives but so often we set ourselves up for failure because we haven’t thought things through. Coaching combined with NLP techniques, helps create the correct frame of mind, which then leads to the actions that enable a person to reach their goal.
So here I am on my Life Coaching journey. I will keep you posted as my studies progress, It is a fascinating subject, for me it doesn’t feel like study, I get totally absorbed in it. So if you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment or send me a message.
It is getting more and more difficult to have a private conversation online these days. I’m not talking about the need for privacy so something criminal can be planned, but the simple act of being able to talk confidentially with someone and have a reasonable expectation that nobody else can listen in on your conversation or read your emails. As time goes by, the ability to have secure and private access to the internet becomes more difficult, governments and companies such as Google and Facebook want access to our communications, that information is then sold to other companies. The fact is, you should never post something online that you are not happy for the whole world to see, just because you believe it to be private, just for the person you want to see it, does not make it so.
So what can be done to improve the security of your communications? For a start you need to communicate using ‘end to end encryption’ What is that, you ask? It means your communication is encrypted on your computer or phone before being sent to whoever you want to see it. The computer or phone of the receiver then decrypts the message. Nobody in the middle, not your ISP (internet service provider) or anyone else, has access to your communication. Even the service you use to send the encrypted message can not read your messages, even if they try to look, all they will see is a scrambled and meaningless string of numbers and letters. The next important point is that any service you use for secure communication must use ‘open source’ software. Open source means the original software code is freely available for anyone to see and modify. It also means that if a bug is found in the software, it can be quickly fixed and updates made. It is not possible to hide a deliberate mistake in the software that can give access to your messages, for instance, to hackers, ISP or government. For this reason I would not use WhatsApp, it uses end to end encryption but it is ‘closed source’ not open source, the original code can not be seen or corrected, except by WhatsApp and it is owned by Facebook, a company that lives on collecting data about its users.
There are some simple steps you can take to improve the privacy of your email and chats. The first is to sign up for a ProtonMail email account, it is based on open source software and uses full end to end encryption, you can access it through your web browser and on your phone through an App. For chat there are two options I like, one is free the other is not. The first is Signal, it is a free App for your phone, again it is open source and offers end to end encryption. The second option is Threema, also an App for your phone, it isn’t free but it has some features I personally like. While ProtonMail doesn’t need the person you are emailing to also have an account both Signal and Threema do require the person you are communicating with to be using the same software. It is how their systems work.
Those are simple steps you can take to improve the privacy of your communications and for 99% of the time are more than adequate. If you are interested or curious to try something new and don’t mind following a few simple steps, there is an extra layer of security you can add to your communications. Most people will use ProtonMail on their PC or phone, Signal and Threema are for phone use too. But the system to run the PC will probably be Microsoft Windows operating system or the Apple operating system. Signal and Threema run on Android, IOS operating systems etc. The issue is that those operating systems are controlled by the companies that created them, Android is owned by Google and open source, Google updates it but how often does the maker of your Android phone send you those security updates? Both MS Windows and Apple IOS are actively targeted by hackers and they regularly find security weaknesses to exploit and get access to the computers running them. We are trusting Microsoft, Apple and Google to fix those weaknesses as quickly as possible and not to deliberately leave secret access points into the operating system so governments can have a browse through your computer or phone whenever they wish. Most people don’t want to stop using MS Windows or Apple IOS for their regular computer needs, I understand that. But let’s imagine you are working on a highly confidential project that needs to really be as secure as possible, or maybe someone in China who needs full and open access to the internet and communication which really as secure as possible. This is where a ‘Live Operating System’ comes in very useful. A Live OS is a complete bootable computer installation including operating system which runs in a computer’s memory, rather than loading from a hard disk drive; the USB itself is read-only. It allows users to run an operating system for any purpose without installing it or making any changes to the computer’s configuration. Live operating systems can run on a computer without secondary storage, such as a hard disk drive. Today, most people run a Live OS from a USB memory stick, CD or DVD. There is a Live OS that is built from the ground up with security in mind, it is called Tails is open source, concentrates on encryption and making you anonymous on the internet. Using Tails will not change or effect your Windows or IOS installation, You plug the memory stick into your USB and the computer starts from that and when you shut down the PC and remove the USB stick, the next time you start your PC, it starts as normal. What are the advantages of using Tails OS? All work you do, documents created and conversations are kept secure and encrypted, you can create documents that you can save to a memory stick and only you will be able to read them. Tails OS connects you to the internet through the Tor network and keeps you anonymous. If you don’t mind getting a bit technical, it is worth taking the time to read and understand how Tor works and the different ways you can use it. Countries such as China try to block Tor but there are built in ways to get around the block.
In this time of threat to privacy and loss of confidentiality, steps need to be taken by those who want to protect their communications from mass surveillance. You can take some simple steps such as use ProtonMail, Signal or Threema and if you need an extra layer of of security and don’t mind getting a bit technical then use Tails OS with its built in connection to the Tor network.
Welcome to 2017. If you thought 2016 was an interesting year just wait for what will unfold this year. We can look forward to fresh developments in the MIddle East, Russia, China, USA and Europe. Global politics is changing and under the surface so are economic developments. I’m sure some things will be quite a surprise. Saying that, I’m going to attempt to present what can happen based on current situations.
Syria: While Assad has broken the back of the opposition, with the determined backing of Russia and Iran, resistance is bound to continue in different areas of the country. It is safe to say that Assad has held onto power, for now. The fact that he was prepared to see the destruction of his country and displacement of millions of the population are of no consequence to him. He has sworn to take control of all Syrian territory, including Daesh and Kurdish held areas. This operation could continue for some time yet and may never come to a total conclusion. Winning the war is one thing, winning the peace and rebuilding the country is quite another. The only way to control ex rebel held areas is through an iron fist of military rule. As part of this, Russia has sent hundreds of military police to Aleppo. Then there is the economic situation, the country is in ruins, large parts of the infrastructure destroyed, roads, bridges, water and electricity supplies are out of action. It is going to cost billions to rebuild. Syria does not have the money to rebuild, Russia can’t afford to help rebuild the country and neither can Iran, their economies are not strong enough. Many wealthy Syrian business people moved to Gulf states such as Dubai, also Canada and the USA, it has been suggested to me that they will move back to Syria when things calm down and re-open their factories. Whether this happens by choice or through the threat of having their factories taken over by the government remains to be seen. Assuming factories can be brought back on line, the surrounding infrastructure they need, such as water and electricity is less than reliable. I can also see a strong possibility that a lot of forced labour will be used, mainly of the remaining Sunni population, to begin the enormous task of cleaning up the country. Assad now has a mandate from the global community to mistreat his people as he sees fit and you can be sure he will not disappoint. For the future, Syria will remain a broken country, violence will continue and oppression will increase. Assad himself could not have held onto Syria without the help of Russia and Iran, as a result he will be obliged to do as he is told when it suits his saviours. The only way therefore for Syria to rebuild is if Arab states take out their cheque books and that is not going to happen as long as Assad is in power. There will have to be a transition to a Syrian leader more acceptable to the Arab states before they consider handing over any money. Who the new leader will be is not clear yet but it will be someone from inside the existing power structure of Syria and most probably a Sunni, not an Alawhite, not from the first tier of government but most likely from the second tier of power. If relative calm can be brought back to Syria there would be massive investment potential. Before the war, Syria had the most diverse economy of any Arab state and it has natural resources for producing phosphates and cement, as well as agriculture and textiles. To bring its economy back can only happen if the country is rebuilt and that is not going to happen as long as Assad is in power, financial interests will see to that. How any power transition plays out will be watched very carefully by Iran, they do not want to lose their influence in Syria as part of the Shia crescent they have constructed which stretches all the way to the Mediterranean sea. Russia in its new role as power broker in the region will be looking to maintain its influence in Sunni Turkey and Shia Iran as it negotiates a new power structure in Syria. Failing this, Syria will never be rebuilt. Where this will leave the Kurds in their semi-autonomous region of Syria remains to be seen, particularly as the USA has been stepping away from the region for some time now. Its only real remaining interest in the region being Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Turkey: Turkey has had a terrible year with many bombings and shootings. Since the failed coup attempt last summer President Erdogan has clamped down hard. Not just clearing out the military and police but also lawyers, judges and teachers. The so called ‘parallel structure’ full of Gulanist supporters as he asserts. He has gone well beyond those who had anything to do with the coup attempt. As a result, the fractures in Turkey between those who support Erdogan and those who don’t have become a chasm. Erdogan has to now keep the pressure at a high level to stop any dissent. Personally I see the potential for civil war in Turkey and I am going to stick my neck out and say the foundations for civil war are being laid now. Also of note is the fact that it was Russia, Turkey and Iran that laid the framework for a ceasefire in Syria. The USA was nowhere to be seen and not invited. This is a clear demonstration that Turkey is no longer looking west as it had done in the past. At the same time, don’t imagine that all is rosy between Turkey and Russia, their’s is a business relationship only and there are still areas of conflicting interest between them. Erdogan will not tolerate any Kurdish semi-autonomous state inside Syria and it will act unilaterally if Assad and Russia don’t end it. But I want to keep the focus on Turkey’s internal stability, or lack of it. The number of attacks by Kurds and Daesh increase, Erdogan’s policies are alienating a large part of the population who were used to having power and influence in the country. I believe the fuse has been lit in Turkey.
Russia: Flush with a sense of victory, Russia is back on the world stage and projecting its geo-political influence and military strength. With the USA stepping away from involvement in the Middle East, Russia has stepped forward to fill the vacuum. From the outside, Russia looks strong but the projection of power masks internal weakness. Its economy is in bad shape, the middle class is shrinking rapidly and the price of oil and gas is nowhere near high enough to help the Russian economy recover, its economy is now about the size of Italy’s according to World Bank data. Despite military success in Syria, war is very expensive and has been sucking up money from other parts of the economy. There is also the question of what Russia will do next. Emboldened by victory, inaction of the West and a soon to be new President of the USA, will Russia be tempted to strike out elsewhere? Russia can’t afford two wars and now that its operation in Syria is being scaled back, maybe soon will be the time when it increases activity in Ukraine. Just because Ukraine is not in the news much these days does not mean the situation in the east of the country is quiet, there are daily shootings and bombings, but not on a level high enough to get on the news. Will Russia now look to expand operations again in Ukraine and capture more territory? It is a possibility and it can do so in the knowledge that nobody can stop it. The big question is if Russia will try and capture territory from Estonia and Latvia, which have a significant Russian speaking population, the same as in eastern Ukraine. Will Russia gamble on NATO/OTAN backing down in the face of an invasion of those two Baltic countries? With incoming President Donald Trump showing a lack of enthusiasm for Nato, as well as seeming to be more isolationist, could Russia get away with it? Certainly European members of NATO would not be able to stop Russia in its tracks and Turkey would refuse to get involved in any way, despite also being a member of NATO. I think Russia will wait a while to see what Donald Trump actually does as President, and if he shows no interest in the region, Russia will take it as signal and go ahead. Maybe not in direct invasion but will use tactics similar to those used in Ukraine.
Regarding the internal situation in Russia, it should be pointed out the increasing power of the Orthodox church. Working with the Kremlin, its role seems to be that of getting the message to the people, telling them to endure economic hardship as a part of their faith and that Vladimir Putin is something like a living saint, sent to save the country from the rest of the corrupt world. In so doing, the Orthodox church is coordinating a campaign against all who do not uphold ‘traditional values’, including those who do. For example, Jehovah’s Witnesses, who were persecuted and sent to gulags during Soviet times for their political neutrality and talking about their faith, are once again under attack, labelled as an ‘extremist’ organization and their website is now banned in Russia, the only other place it is banned is in North Korea. The Orthodox church is the main perpetrator of this attack on basic rights of freedom of worship. It wants to control the message and the message is that Putin is some sort of saviour on a religious level. In the meantime, the Orthodox church is increasing its wealth while the people suffer increasing financial hardship. The country is returning to how it was during the time of the czars, A small rich elite, almost no middle class and the uneducated peasants who are constantly being fed news of how great their country has once again become.
What should be understood about Russia, is that it always tries to put the blame for difficulties on external situations but in the end it always tears itself apart from the inside. The Orthodox church with its growing power and influence over the masses, could, when the time comes, be the factor to cause upheaval in the country, give it time as it consolidates its power and influence in the ruling structure and education system of Russia. Very similar in a way to the ‘parallel structure’ that was developed in Turkey and led to the coup attempt last year.
USA: With a new incoming President it is not easy to say what is going to happen but 2016 was a difficult year for the country. The divisions in its society are increasing, Black Lives Matter is a case in point. Many people are struggling to earn enough, pay for medical insurance, get a decent education. It is against this backdrop that many decided to vote for Donald Trump, if only just to try something new, as the existing political establishment tends to look down its nose at the working poor. Will Trump help them? Time will tell and I wont try to second guess what will happen regarding this. What I do think will be different is foreign policy. Trump is a business man, making money is what drives him and he has a reputation for being quite ruthless. However, his skills wont necessarily translate into effective diplomatic negotiation. An example would be his comments on the ‘One China’ policy, by which Taiwan is recognized as a part of China, even though it has a democratically elected government. Trump suggested this policy should be renegotiated, with China making economic concessions in return for continued acceptance of this policy. For China the ‘One China’ policy is a red line and will never be acceptable for use in any economic negotiations, China will react and react strongly if Trump decides to go down this road. Being known for the size of his fragile ego, he takes offense very easily and has a tendency to seek revenge. When he realizes that he is being played by Russia, the consequences could be dramatic to say the least. Unless there is an economic argument, I don’t see Trump taking much of an interest in Syria or Yemen or any other humanitarian crisis. When it comes to oil, as with all administrations in the USA, Trump will take keen interest. But I keep coming back to is his total lack of experience in dealing with foreign governments, there are only common interests in global politics, never friendship and Trump is the sort of person who hates getting the less profitable side of the deal and he takes these things very personally. So I think it is safe to say, when it comes to foreign policy, things could become rather volatile. On the other hand he might take a back seat, delegating foreign policy and concentrating on the domestic interests of his business friends in the USA. With regard to the USA economy, I think he will borrow to spend on rebuilding the infrastructure (roads, bridges, power grids etc) of the country, which is in a desperate state of disrepair and if something is not done about it soon will have a direct effect on the economy.
Europe: With Brexit, Europe is losing its second largest economy, some of its biggest banks are in a fragile state and in Italy many of its smaller banks are in very bad health, if one of these small Italian banks were to fail it could start a cascade effect and potentially take the country out of the EU. Austerity has not worked as planned, wages are stagnant and populist political parties are on the rise. There will also be a massive business scandal to come out of Europe, which I’m not at liberty to talk about at the moment but the fall-out will be immense. In the Balkans, tensions simmer between Serbia and Bosnia, that war can happen again, in fact it would take very little for the region to erupt in violence. Terrorism in Europe is a continuing threat and will probably increase. The use of trucks to run down innocents is, sad to say, much more effective than someone with a AK47 and easier to get hold of for use as a weapon. I expect to see more attacks like these. I hate to say this, but I would not be surprised to see high speed trains being derailed as a means of terrorism. It is very easy to do and extremely difficult, if not impossible, to prevent.
There you have it. I think we will have an interesting 2017 for many different reasons.