Ukraine: War is coming, part 3

It seemed that the talks in Geneva between Russian, Ukrainian and US counterparts had opened up a possibility for all those involved to step back from the brink, calm the situation down and work things out. To be honest, for a brief moment, I thought there could be some mature, adult behavior and things might be resolved. I was foolish to think this, since when have political leaders shown any sort of grown up pragmatism in dealing with serious problems? They are more interested in their petty power plays. They are lesser sons, ignoble offspring, unfit for purpose and certainly unfit to govern. I aim that at all politicians and rulers, everywhere.

So now we have an escalating situation in Ukraine, the number of small skirmishes seem to be increasing on a daily basis. How long will it be before we see a major assault take place, it appears to only be a matter of time, sooner rather than later! The opportunities to step back from the brink are becoming fewer by the day as tension mounts. As I said in Part 1 and Part 2 of this series; they are stumbling towards war, blind to the consequences which will befall them.

One of the areas of the Ukraine/Russia crisis that doesn’t get much attention at the moment is the role of the Orthodox church, its involvement in the political affairs of both countries. I first wrote about it in early March, you can find it here Further to this, at Easter you can see the involvement of the Orthodox church on both sides when you take notice of what was said when they addressed their followers. In Ukraine, Patriarch Filaret condemned Russian aggression, directly calling Russia an enemy. Meanwhile in Russia, Patriarch Kirill while he called for peace and cooperation between Ukraine and Russia he also called for, and I quote “end to the designs of those who want to destroy Holy Russia.”

To understand the full impact of this you need to know what he meant when he said “Holy Russia”, from a Russian nationalist point of view there is no difference between Russia and Ukraine, they are one and the same, the birth of Russia as we know it originates in Ukraine. Modern Russian nationalism sees Ukraine as a country to be fully united into Russia. The Russian Orthodox church is a key proponent of this, Patriarch Kirill is extremely nationalistic and also extremely close to Vladimir Putin. Kirill is a key Putin supporter, preaching from the pulpit that Putin is the man of the hour and there to save Russia and unite “Holy Russia” So we have the Orthodox church, Ukrainian and Russian, both supposedly Christian, using their enormous political power in their respective countries to foment war regarding an idea that goes against anything that is taught by the faith they proclaim to follow.

Besides strongly resurgent Russian nationalism, it also appears that there is another reason for Russia’s actions. Appealing to the Russian masses sense of nationalism is a very effective way of taking their minds away from other deeper, systemic problems. The Russian economy is very fragile, money is being drained out of its economy at a huge rate, the national bank is having to use its reserves to maintain liquidity, the banking sector is very fragile, it is facing a situation of sub-prime business loans similar to the sub-prime property loan crisis in the USA back in 2007/2008, the main difference is that the big Russian banks are owned by those who are personally close to Putin. The price of crude oil is falling, the Russian economy is based on oil/gas exports and depends on maintaining a certain price level. At the moment the price is about $110 per barrel. Russia or should I say Putin, needs the price to be about $115 per barrel in order to have enough money to keep paying the people the vast amounts he must for their continued support. Then we have to consider China, its shadow banking sector is in a huge speculative bubble which when it bursts will have implications for the wider Chinese economy, this will depress demand which will be reflected in the amount of energy it consumes and buys from Russian which will further depress oil/gas prices, reducing further the income Russia gets from its energy exports. Faced with these situations, a man such as Putin is going to be pressed into a corner, he will come out fighting, looking for ways to put the blame on others, a war with Ukraine would be a useful distraction, he is being left with little other choice. It is funny in an ironic way, the desire to hold on to power no matter what, will lead people into the most self destructive situations imaginable, and I aim this at the global political, business and religious system, not only Putin. When I look at the world today it reminds me of how the world was shortly before the outbreak of WW1. Watch this space.



19 thoughts on “Ukraine: War is coming, part 3

  1. I was thinking that too; it sounds like the czar has another Rasputin on his shoulder.

    Perhaps The best way for him to stay in power would be to turn over the problem solving to the knowledge of the people, which is more focused on the future than traditionalist government advisors and experts. Support their new ideas, boost the economy. A united Russia will naturally follow with the entire nation thinking and acting outside of the box, and the whole world importing Russian innovation.
    Ironically, if he doesn’t, they’ll eventually revolt and do it without him.

    • Rasputin, hadn’t thought of that, sound of hammer hitting nail on the head 😉

      Putin has no intention of turning power over to anybody, his psychology wont allow it, I have been studying him for a while. There seems to be a rule of thumb, once a leader has been in power for more than 10 years they start to lose the plot, the circle of people they trust grows smaller while their paranoia increases. They become more isolated from reality. Think Margret Thatcher, Hugo Chavez, Tony Blair, Robert Mugabe etc Putin falls into the same category, in the end holding onto power becomes the be all and end all.

      Russia will destroy itself from the inside, it always does. I have friends in Russia, it is a country of amazing culture and the people are some of the warmest I have ever met, when I see what is happening it makes me sad for them, Russians in general are good people.

      It is too early to say what I am thinking but there are going to be global consequences to this situation and it is going to catch a lot of people by surprise 😉

      • The important thing is that you genuinely care. The majority only look for themselves and only want to have a superficial overview in order to consider themselves well informed.

      • Thank you for saying so. I just want the real stories out there from the right sources. But we SE in a superficial age. Enlightenment is slow in coming I’m afraid.

    • As an aside this is why any organization finds it incredibly hard to innovate after a certain period of time. They get fixed in their ways. Look at Facebook, Zuckerberg couldn’t innovate now if his life depended on it, all his business decisions now are based on consolidating power rather than creating something genuinely new and worthwhile. Same goes for government, intelligence agencies and long standing businesses and the global financial system. Entropy in action, physics always wins at the end of the day.

      • Remember when I said ppl get their news from FB, and someone will jump on it? It was just on mainstream news that ppl are getting most of their news from FB. Now that it’s out there, that means Zuckerberg et al. Also know it, and have been developing it. Stay tuned, we’ll see FaceNews real soon. There’s no way I could’ve beat them from scratch– I couldn’t get the resources quick enough and it’s just coming too fast.

      • Then the best way is to get independent news feeds into FB, but to be honest the majority of people who look for their news from FB are, sad to say, a waste of space, they will contribute nothing to society, they only look after their own interests and will deserve everything that happens to them, they are willingly blind. Sorry to say it but it is the truth.

  2. We were in Moscow last September and from the sounds of things and what people told us, they were having a down turn in the economy with lots of unemployment. This may be just another government trying to hide its issues at home and providing employment through its military. Russia stands to gain a lot by annexing the Ukraine.

    • Hi Leslie. Annexing Ukraine will not save Russia. Everybody who can, is getting their money out as fast as possible, plus the price of oil/gas upon which the Russian economy is built is falling. Action against Ukraine is simply a diversion against which blame can be placed on others for the big problems which are soon to engulf Russia and for Putin, hopefully avoiding mass social disorder. My friends in Moscow tell me that if 100,000 go on the streets to demonstrate then Putin can use the military to subdue them, but raise that number to a million and the situation will change.

      • That sounds really bad. I hope cooler heads prevail or we’re going to be in for some nasty business.

      • You can rely on nasty business but it is all quite predictable. The global political system is in self destruct mode, there will be a last attempt to try and save it, but even then, they will sabotage themselves.

  3. Best let Russia gobble up Ukraine for all our sakes, becuase they see it as part of Russia. They’ll come no further. It’ll have to fester as a civil war in which we should NOT get involved. Tragedy or not. It would spread if we became involved.

    • Thanks for the comment Sharon. I don’t get into the rights or wrongs of what is happening. Russia is economically destroying itself and is using Ukraine as a distraction for the Russian masses as those in the Kremlin work out how to stay in power. Should Europe get involved or not is irrelevant, as Russia destroys itself from the inside, the globally connected world can’t help but be effected by any consequences of the situation.

  4. Pingback: Ukraine: War is coming, part 1 | Russell Chapman

  5. Pingback: Ukraine: War is coming, part 2 | Russell Chapman

  6. Pingback: Ukraine: War has started | Russell Chapman

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