Ukraine: War is coming, part 1

This is just a short post, full analysis will come later.

Both Ukrainians and Russians seem hell bent on getting their own way, as a result they are bringing the probability of war closer on a daily basis. One thing that can be guaranteed is that ordinary people will be made to suffer as a result of stubbornness and pride shown by both sides.

Do not assume that Russia would easily win a war with Ukraine. Russia withdrew from its war with the Taliban in Afghanistan after realizing that it couldn’t defeat them. The Taliban were very basically armed compared to the then Soviet forces. Against Ukraine is a different situation, yes their military is smaller but Ukraine is a major arms supplier and those who will fight will go to the bitter end, extracting a very high price from Russia.

We live in a crazy world where the desire for power and demonstrating ego controls the actions of people who have undeserved power. They blindly lead their countries into the abyss. Watch this space. You can read Part 2 and Part 3 by clicking on the links.

9 thoughts on “Ukraine: War is coming, part 1

  1. Comparing Ukraine and Afganistan is incorrect. Starting from geographical, cultural and historical aspects. The Ukrainian Army is weak – let us be honest with that. There is a way to avoid war and that means federalization of Ukraine.
    And the saddest thing is that milions of civillians will suffer, meanwhile people really resposible for this situation will just watch and benefit.

    • Hi Matti. Thanks for the comment. I made the Afghanistan comparison to show that in the face a smaller less well equipped enemy the Russians could not win a decisive war. The same for Chechnya, they basically had to destroy the country and even then the Chechen militia were not finished off. I was in Grozny as an observer, I still have dreams about what I saw, it was beyond words, but in the end the Russians had to change their strategy from direct military intervention in order to bring some form of order to that country.

      Ukraine is different, yes her fighting force is smaller but ironically, in many ways is better equipped than their Russian counterparts, Ukraine was until recently an exporter of arms to Russia, but they stopped exports due to the current crisis, in fact it is one of the global leaders of arms exports as its quality control and engineering is seen as being of higher quality that of the same systems which are made in Russia.

      I don’t believe Russia really wants to see war in Ukraine but both sides are playing a game of Chicken, to see who will blink first, the problem with that is the mentality that one can never back down, they are going to stumble into a war that neither side really wants to have. The USA and EU are also partly to blame, they are trying to push Russia into a corner over the situation in Ukraine and that will simply make the situation worse, Putin will feel he has no choice but to come out fighting. I am no fan of Putin but I don’t believe he wants to have a war but he feels that the options left open to him are becoming fewer by the day. This is going to become an accidental war.

      • I’m terrified how many “neutral” experts advises that Ukraine should fight aggainst Russia. We all know the consequences…
        About the armament – as You wrote – Russians recieved those weapons (especially awesome anti-stelth radars as far as I remember- please correct me if I’m wrong). All those work plants developing those technolgies are inherited after CCCP, so it’s not that quite precisely “Ukrainian”. We both notice how complicated this conflict is. How it involves postcommunism, nationalism, economical influences, etc. etc… As You wrote – It’s a crazy world we live in… That fot reply, sorry for my english and hope to read more from You 🙂

      • I don’t know why so many are advising that Ukraine should fight Russia, there are other options to settle this situation but too many people are trying to provoke a situation, Russian nationalists are guilty of this too. The Orthodox church is also putting pressure, of this I am sure.

        Nothing good is going to come out of this situation, the only thing I can say is that if it does come to war, and I am fairly certain it will, then Putin will not be in a position to support Bashar al Assad of Syria in the same way.

        Yes Ukraine supplies defense systems, weapons systems and armoured personnel carriers. Don’t worry about your English, I understand you perfectly 🙂

  2. Pingback: Ukraine: War is coming, part 3 | Russell Chapman

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