What if Bashar al Assad and Iran were to win the war in Syria?

Let’s say that Assad wins this war with Iran’s backing, what would happen?
The price would be virtually total control of the government in Damascus, even before the revolution Bashar had allowed Iranian influence into Syria much more than his father Hafez ever did. The Iranians aren’t helping Assad out of love. The have hegemonic ambitions to dominate the entire region. It is only with their help that Assad holds on to power, and they will also have the power to remove him if he doesn’t tow their line.

So the war is won. What next? It is clear that Assad would go on a killing spree, slaughtering everyone who he felt was in opposition to him. This would amount to millions of people. There is precedent, his father killed thousands in Hama back in the 80′s when they showed discontent with the regime. The next time will be on a much larger scale and he will have the help of the Iranians in this.

After this, when the clean up is finished, will be when Shia are encouraged to move to Syria and take over certain areas. Someone said that the Shia would be murdered if this were to happen, what you have to remember is that if Assad/Iran win this war there will be such an iron fist of control in the country that the situation before the revolution will seem like a happy time in comparison. The Shia with Iranian backing will in effect have more control in many ways than Assad. He would become no more than a figurehead and he wouldn’t have any choice in the matter. Under these circumstances it will be easy for many Shia to move into Syria.

The impact of all this is that Israel would now have many Shia on its border which effectively means that Tehran will now be next door to them. The balance of power and spheres of influence will have dramatically changed. Why else would Israel have directly armed the Sunni rebels when they were fighting Hezbollah close to its border if it doesn’t feel threatened by having Shia on its Eastern border?


5 thoughts on “What if Bashar al Assad and Iran were to win the war in Syria?

  1. If Iran and Assad have the power to do this, why don’t they just do it and get it over with? Why are they dragging it out if they don’t have to? Does Assad know it will strip him of real power, and so he is only allowing Iran in a trickle at a time?

    • I wrote this post as a hypothetical musing on what would happen if…. If Assad and Iran had the power to win they would have done so by now, it isn’t that they aren’t trying. Because of the media coverage, the rebels are portrayed as no more than religious fundamentalist thugs, as a result many people say they hope the regime wins this war. I wanted to show what will happen if that were to be the case.

      As for Assad, to be honest he is not the sharpest tool in the box, his father Hafez would go crazy, if he were alive today, to see how Bashar has let Iran get ever greater influence in Syria. Hafez while quite evil was not stupid, he created a balance between the Persians and Arabs that left everybody happy. Bashar has undone all that work. You have to remember that Bashar was never raised to be the President, his brother was, but when he died then Bashar was suddenly thrust into a position he was totally unprepared for. As a result he has let events overtake him and the Iranians outplay him.

      Hezbollah are Iran’s proxy army and they now have over 30,000 fighters in Syria so this is hardly a trickle.

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