News from Syria

I had a long chat this morning with one of my close Syrian contacts. He is always up to date with what is happening behind the scenes and is probably the best connected Syrian in the South. I stayed with him and his family for 2 weeks when I was in Jordan, I know this guy well and he is always very open with me.

I asked him about the situation on the ground. He says that now the war is in an effective stalemate. Neither the government or the rebels have the strength to win. The rebels have pretty much given up on trying to fight in Damascus as it is too well defended and they are lacking the equipment they need to push forward. It is now a situation where each side almost play with each other, taking turns to take and then lose a position but without either side making any real progress now.

This, despite the huge number of well trained and equipped Hezbollah fighters now in the country who are fighting with the regime and are much better fighters than the regular Syrian army. Over 3000 of them in Damascus, another 3000 or so in Homs, about 1500 in Daraa and close to 4000 in the Aleppo area. Even they have changed tactics, no longer concentrating so much on full frontal attacks but instead rather more use of snipers and hit and run attacks as they realize they can’t take the rebels head on and win.

He said that they are getting a certain amount of help from the USA with regard to intelligence and satellite images of regime positions etc. But he also said that they have been told by the USA which positions they will help with and which positions they wont help with. What this means is that there is obviously a deal somewhere that the Regime will be given certain protected areas and the rebels also are given their areas, with the main fighting happening around the edges of these. Hence the stalemate.

What is very clear is how tired everybody is, they would love the fighting to stop, at the same time they don’t want the revolution to die. If it did the Regime would literally slaughter millions of people in revenge and it would make life even harder for ordinary people than before the revolution.

Another result, if Assad were to win, is that Iran would basically be in control of Syria and Assad and his government would be nothing but a figurehead, the real ruling of the country coming from Tehran. Also Tehran would move millions of Shia Muslims into Syria to live there and this would seriously change the Sunni-Shia balance of power in the middle east and also pose a serious threat to Israel.

So what will happen? My friend told me that they know that this war will never be won with weapons by either side. There will have to be some sort of political solution. Next year is the Presidential election in Syria, who knows what deals are being brokered behind the scenes between the USA and Russia, maybe something that will have Assad step down along with one or two others from the regime. We will have to wait and see. But as I have said in the past, the USA doesn’t want this war to come to an end yet as it is an effective way of making Iran and by proxy Hezbollah tie up a lot of resources in this conflict and to slowly be weakened.

On the other hand we also need to watch Egypt, it is very unstable at the moment. There is deep dissatisfaction with the government there and how they are getting ever closer to Iran. If there is another revolution there, and it could well happen soon, there could be the possibility of certain factions in the Egyptian military going to the aid of the Syrian Sunni rebels if President Morsi of Egypt were overthrown. Again, something to watch.

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8 thoughts on “News from Syria

  1. I’d be interested to hear about what the other Sunni groups (Al Qaeda and other Salafist organizations) fighting Assad are up to since they are the main reason the West refrains from fully supporting the rebels. In Israel, no one knows who to support, though Nasarallah is no ones favorite. The fear from Syria after Assad is balanced against Syria under Iran influence.

    • Shalom/Salam Daniel. Thanks for your reply. At the moment the Salafist groups in Syria are relatively small, at most 20% of the Sunni rebel opposition. I’m totally neutral, I just report and don’t get involved but even I could make sure that arms only get to the moderates, it really isn’t difficult. I had enough time on the ground to see the situation and know the people, if I wanted to be involved in such a way I could easily make sure that weapons wouldn’t fall into the hands of Salafists. The argument that it is difficult to control who gets arms is just an excuse to do little. Everyone, including Israel has helped the FSA with weapons, when fighting against Hezbollah got too close to Israel’s borders then Israel supplied them with weapons, as soon as Hezbollah were pushed back the supply was cut. The international politics of this conflict is to keep it going as long as possible so that Iran will be made to bleed in Syria. What nobody seems to take into consideration is the suffering of the Syrian people, this is what exemplifies the moral bankruptcy of all the governments that are involved, it is all about politics and power, nobody cares about people.

  2. Perhaps this is the perfect time to start pushing information to people. If they cannot bomb the regime, perhaps they can bomb the people of the world with the truth. And definitely take the opportunity to deal with the bad PR coming from dudes like Khalid Al-Hamad who is eating livers on You Tube, and making the FSA look insane.

    • Then spread the word Leah. I write only what I see, as unbiased as possible. Doing so has caught the attention of several quarters, as for the people of the world, are they awake enough to know their ass from their elbow????

      • i’m trying man! i blab abut it on my FB all the time 🙂

        as far as do people care? not sure. the only time i really see any discussion is when twats start arguing either for a complete detachment from the middle east, or a carpet bomb if the whole area.

        since 75% of US people watch tv for pure entertainment, only 25% watch for real info, and 100% of tv is garbage…i think i’m losing the fight over here.

      • I have decided that I will publish here the interview I did with Zaid Tlass, closs relative of Manaf and Tiras Tlass to show what the regime is all about and also the last chapter of my book. Will be interesting to see the reaction 😉

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